First thoughts: Albany shocker
Posted: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 9:27 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First
Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico
Montanaro
*** Albany Shocker: The Spitzer story is
something that is simply shocking. But like the other recent sex scandals --
Vitter?s and Craig?s -- this one is likely to have very little national effect,
unless Spitzer decides to stay in office. Assuming a fairly quick resignation,
this will fade into being only a fascinating New York City/Albany story with a
new star being born, Lt. Gov. David Paterson, who would become governor. The
trouble only starts if Spitzer won't go, then he risks having prominent New
Yorkers like Hillary Clinton being forced to call for his resignation and
putting him in an even more precarious position. By the way, for those
wondering, Spitzer is a superdelegate, as is Paterson. Both have endorsed
Clinton. Should Spitzer resign, the number of superdelegates will simply be
subtracted by one, since there's no provision in New York for a lieutenant
governor to be replaced until the next election.
Video: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the
likelihood N.Y. Gov. Eliot Spitzer will resign; plus Barack Obama-Hillary
Clinton battle.
***
The Magnolia match up: Can
Obama win yet another state and pick up some more momentum heading into
Pennsylvania? Could he win by such a margin that he erases the net delegates
Clinton gained from her victories last week? Or can Clinton pull off the upset
in a state Obama is favored to win? We?ll find out the answers to these
questions in today?s Mississippi primary, where 33 pledged delegates are at
stake. Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET.
*** Turning Mississippi blue? Take a
look at Alabama (Obama won it by 14 points), Georgia (by 35 points), Louisiana
(by 21 points) and South Carolina (by 28 points), and you'll get an idea about
Obama's likely margin of victory. Frankly, if Clinton keeps Obama under 15
points, she may have a moral victory. That said, it wouldn't be surprising if
Obama won by 20-plus points considering the makeup of Mississippi's electorate.
In fact, Mississippi is one of those rare Southern states that might be in play
in the general election if Obama becomes the nominee. One Dem statistician tells
First Read that there are three red states that could swing if African-American
turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout):
Georgia, Louisiana and, yes, Mississippi. So don't assume this is just one of
those untouchable red states for the Dems when watching returns roll in
tonight.
Video:
NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports on the Democratic battle today in
Mississippi's primary.
***
Veep chatter: The
big Clinton-Obama story yesterday was Obama pushing back against the idea that
he would be Clinton?s vice president. Interestingly, Clinton supporter Ed
Rendell seemed to backtrack a bit more than anyone else in the Clinton campaign
when he admitted that he thinks Clinton would make a good veep for Obama. "It
would be great and either way,? he said, per NBC/NJ?s Athena Jones. He added:
"Whether it was Sen. Obama for the president and Sen. Clinton for vice president
or vice versa. I think it would be great." While many analysts have picked up on
this Clinton storyline as proof Clinton is trying to diminish Obama, don't
assume this isn't ALSO an attempt by the Clintons to remind Obama that she
should be considered for the veep slot if he's the nominee. It appears more
likely every day that Clinton's Plan B is the VP slot, not Senate majority
leader as so many others have speculated.
*** When surrogates attack: As Samantha
Power?s ?monster? comment to the Scotsman taught us, sometimes a remark by an
adviser/surrogate to a fairly untraditional media outlet can produce a political
firestorm. Will this statement by Clinton supporter Geraldine Ferraro spark a
similar controversy? "If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this
position," Ferraro told Torrance CA?s Daily
Breeze. "And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this
position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught
up in the concept." The Clinton campaign quickly distanced itself from this
comment, because this is a slippery slope argument that could be demeaning to
both Clinton and Obama.
*** Obama playing offense: Yesterday,
Obama resurrected the Somali garb story, accusing the Clinton campaign of
leaking the photo that made its way to Drudge, NBC/NJ?s Aswini Anburajan
notes. Obama said, "? when in the midst of a campaign you decide to throw
the kitchen sink at your opponent because you're behind and your campaign starts
leaking photos of me when I'm traveling overseas, wearing, in native clothes of
those folks to make people afraid." Obama was very matter of fact about this --
the first time he's been this way on a story that hasn?t proven to be true.
*** The Rezko headache: Obama?s name
came up tangentially at the Rezko trial yesterday -- regarding nominations to an
Illinois health planning board. At a minimum, Obama's name is being mentioned
just enough that the trial is going to provide a blueprint for some reporters to
write some negative stories about Obama.
*** On the
trail: Clinton, in Pennsylvania, stumps in Harrisburg and Philadelphia
before returning to DC later in the evening; McCain is in the potential
battleground state of Missouri, campaigning in St. Louis; and Obama holds a town
hall in Fairless Hills, PA.
Countdown to Pennsylvania: 42 days
Countdown to
Election Day 2008: 238 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 315 days
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