The Politico is ahead of the curve with the
traditional national press on the state of the contest for the Democratic
Presidential nomination:
One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic
presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of
winning.
Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in
pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic
superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the
party?s most reliable constituency.
Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote ? which also
would take nothing less than an electoral miracle ? and use that achievement to
pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An
African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won
the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.
People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another
planet.
As it happens, many people inside Clinton?s campaign live right here on
Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she
has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama,
an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.
In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic
cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.
It's been clear to some of us for over a month that the race was over. The Politico article covers some
of what we've been talking about for some time, that by just about any measure
the race is decided, and that the only way Clinton can win is for Obama to be destroyed and for her to benefit
from his destruction.
When asked yesterday if her campaign was pushing the Wright story, Hillary
Clinton herself wouldn't deny it, and didn't declare it off
limits for her campaign staff. I've been told that the campaign's talking
points for surrogate calls to superdelegates urges the callers to question
Obama's electability by emphasizing the Wright controversy. And even in
public, as Chris Bowers reported from his local Dem
meeting, Clinton staffers are pushing the Wright story:
Well, I just returned from my ward meeting tonight in University City,
Philadelphia, and two Clinton staffers made an appearance. When one spoke on
behalf of Hillary Clinton, he specifically listed Jeremiah Wright as an example
of why Obama would be less electable in the general election. The context of his
argument was that the Wright story demonstrated that Obama had not gone through
the rigors of a presidential election before, and it was possible that more
damaging stories like that would come out as the campaign progressed. Aka, the
Wright story is demonstrative of how Obama is less electable.
According to The Politico article, it's sort of a last gasp attempt to derail
Obama's nomination, but it doesn't seem likely to succeed:
Her advisers say privately that the nominee will be clear by the end of June.
At the same time, they recognize that the nominee probably is clear already.
So, you might be asking, why the heck won't the traditional media report what
most of us see, that the nomination is settled and there's no way other than
destroying Obama or dividing the party that Clinton can win the nomination?
The real question is why so many people are playing. The answer has more to
do with media psychology than with practical politics.
Journalists, for instance, have become partners with the Clinton campaign in
pretending that the contest is closer than it really is. Most coverage
breathlessly portrays the race as a down-to-the-wire sprint between two
well-matched candidates, one only slightly better situated than the other to win
in August at the national convention in Denver.
One reason is fear of embarrassment. In its zeal to avoid predictive
reporting of the sort that embarrassed journalists in New Hampshire, the media ?
including Politico ? have tended to avoid zeroing in on the tough math Clinton
faces.
Avoiding predictions based on polls even before voters cast their ballots is
wise policy. But that's not the same as drawing sober and well-grounded
conclusions about the current state of a race after millions of voters have
registered their preferences.
The antidote to last winter's flawed predictions is not to promote a
misleading narrative based on the desired but unlikely story line of one
candidate.
There are other forces also working to preserve the notion of a contest that
is still up for grabs.
One important, if subliminal, reason is self-interest. Reporters and editors
love a close race ? it?s more fun and it?s good for business.
That's right, reporters and editors are unable--or
unwilling--to report the race accurately because they're having
too much fun, and maybe even making too much money.
Governor
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Politico
Reveals Why Media Won't Report That Nomination is Settled- 1 hour agoThe Politico is ahead
of the curve with the traditional national press on the state of the contest for
the Democratic Presidential nomination: One big fact has largely been lost in
the recent cover...
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