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Marist: Matchups for the 2012 Presidential Election

Verbatim email:

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion

Poughkeepsie, NY 12601  Phone 845.575.5050  Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

Battle for the White House:

Matchups for the 2012 Presidential Election

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Thursday, November 6, 2008



Did you really open this email?!
Haven't you had enough?!

You'll be hearing from us soon...but, not this soon.

Best wishes,
Your friends at The Marist Poll

Thank you.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 6, 2008 11:35 AM |

 

Comments
ucla54:

haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Good One.

I for one....am very happy. :)

PLEDGE OF UNITY

The election is over,

The results are known.

The will of the people

Has clearly been shown.

Let's forget the quarrels

And show by our deeds.

We will give our leader

All the help that he needs.

So let's all get together

And let bitterness pass,

I'll hug your elephant

And you kiss my ass

____________________

Iowa City:

Breaking away from these polls cold turkey is very difficult.

____________________

Justin:
____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

As soon as I saw the headline, I was excited to see polling data. I am addicted and I don't want to be cured.

____________________

falcon79:

ROFLMAO!!!
good one guys ;)

____________________

couseydee:

Ha ha ha, now there's proof i'm obsessed.

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chrisinnc:

A) I am obsessed and was totally excited to read these numbers.

B) Please update NC to reflect the AP call!

____________________

crackbaldo:

Jesus, I'm warped, too.

I was kinda hoping to see how bad Barack was kicking Palin's but.

____________________

jonny87:

haha! you got me.

____________________

Publius:

It's nice to know that my sickness has lots of company.

____________________

political_junki:

Why am I here again?
I always thought after the election I am checking the polls just for fun but it seems I was in denial.


Hello every one
My name is Jeff and I am a poll junkie :((

____________________

Andareed:

@political_junki: Want to start a support group? Pollsters Anonymous?

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NW Patrick:

NC blue! Wow 364 baby! LANDSLIDE!

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NW Patrick:

I'm still waiting for that PUSSY KEEPVARED.

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NW Patrick:

BOOMSHACK's STATE GOES BLUE! HAHAHAHAHAA!

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carl29:

Poor boomshak!!! His state is not longer part of the deep south :-) Say hello to the new South, a more diverse south, a more tolerant south. What does the new south states have in common? Inmigration from other states, Hispanic inmigration, and Education :-)

____________________

political_junki:

@Andareed:
Sounds like an idea to me :)

On another note, I keep looking at that map and can't believe the bigO has pulled of such a victory, really amazing.

____________________

masselo:

this site becomes a serious addiction to me -- it's like hooking up on some hard Crystal meth or should i say " Crack Cocaine" -- LOL

____________________

Batony:

This is interesting:

"....Gays came back in some polls, but they couldn't pull out a win. Part of the reason is that Obama inspired unprecedented numbers of African Americans to vote. Polls show that black voters are more likely to attend church than whites and less likely to be comfortable with equality for gay people. According to CNN, African Americans voted against marriage equality by a wide margin, 69% to 31%. High turnout of African Americans in Florida probably help explain that state's lopsided vote to ban same-sex weddings."

When Tom Coburn says social conservatism is not dead, he may have a point. And if you think American blacks have some issues with gays, don't get me started with the black immigrants from Jamaica and Africa.

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political_junki:

@Batony:
"When Tom Coburn says social conservatism is not dead"

It is not dead, it is half dead.
One step at a time;
NEXT: Supreme Court :)

____________________

DTM:

Hilarious!

By the way, as I recall polling shows that each American age cohort has been more accepting of gay people and gay marriage than the last. So it is just a matter of time.

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political_junki:

It is like Segregation and Civil rights.
All these people claiming now to be social conservatives are considered Liberals compared to Con's of 50's. How could somebody be a Social Conservative back then and not be a segregationist?

Gay marriage, abortion, banning guns etc, will just need time, same way that eliminating segregation did.

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ACT:

HA HA!!! Good one Marist. I certainly fell for it.

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kerrchdavis:

damn it...anyone know a counselor that might help with my addiction to this site?

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Batony:

No Karl Rove.

I was hoping Obama would not do it, but he is going to give Axelrod a senior advisor position in his White House. That's how Karl Rove went power happy. Hope Axe doesn't do the same.

As a minority I can tell you that homosexuality is viewed as a creation of the weak white man, who forced it on all the other races. Homosexuality equals weakness for males. In DC that's why it is not uncommon at all for black gays to be bashed or even killed as two have been over the past two months by other blacks. Oh and they nearly beat two whites to death too...

I think that blacks and hispanics are a long ways from accepting gay marriage. They have to accept GAYS first. I know people are who they are, but just speaking as a outsider, effeminate gay guys and transsexuals have hurt the cause more than help. And when I say effeminate, I mean the ones who must be the center of attention with their effeminity. It helps if gays are not viewed as freaks. I wonder if Magic Johnson had been truthful, what effect would it have had on minorities? If Oprah would just come out...what effect would that have. I can go on and on....but I'll stop there.

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thoughtful:

Let's see whether we can start a little thread here:

I will ask this question:

Who will be President Obama's running mate and in effect successor in 4 years time?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

i am not addicted, i can quit any time i wanna, i just don't wanna.

they got me too.

btw, according to CNN, the gap between Franken and Coleman BEFORE the recount is down to 342 votes as of now.

@Mark Blumenthal
One open thread a day is all we, the addicted, ask.

You've eloquently compared your last post to a last day in summer camp. I think we have grown into an odd, but very tightly knit community here, and would love to have this place if only to pick apart political bones and stay in touch. FWIW, we are your captive audience now, and you have to deal with us.

:)

Thanks for your great site. Let's keep it open.

____________________

political_junki:

MNLatteLiberal:
"You've eloquently compared your last post to a last day in summer camp. I think we have grown into an odd, but very tightly knit community here, and would love to have this place if only to pick apart political bones and stay in touch. FWIW, we are your captive audience now, and you have to deal with us."

I second that!

And one kore thing:
Maybe you can put a disclaimer on the top of the first page. That way , in the heat of discussion, we will be free to use all of our favorite words :-) Also maybe you can Pardon BOOM so we can have our daily dose of fun!

____________________

Charlie, Carrollton, TX:

Got me!

I was hoping to open this thread and see Lieberman listed as the GOP front-runner in 2012. But then again, he may not meet their age requirement. Will he be over 70 by 2012?

Addicted.

____________________

DiversEquality2008:

@Batony:

Learn to accept and respect people just as they are. There are lots of heterosexual men and women out there who also want to be the "center of attention" - as you put it - with THEIR sexuality, and nobody sees that as something to justify discrimination against heterosexuals, do they?

We should finally get rid of those primitive, limited and narrow-minded concepts and clichés of gender roles , because many people, straight and gay, don't really fit into them, and that's a very positive characteristic of human diversity.

So, the most important thing in order to achieve full equality for all is EDUCATION, EDUCATION, EDUCATION. And I mean an education that puts respect towards others and towards human diversity in the ! center of attention!

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IWillWorkHarder:

Absolutely beautiful. I was so excited to see a new poll, but I suppose I should move on...see you all in a few years, folks.

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NW Patrick:

Batony why don't you just come out?

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NW Patrick:

Batony don't judge gay people by how feminine some you've seen are. I've slept with a few married Christians in my time.

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Ryguy:

lets face it, none of us here are quitting this thing cold turkey. its just been too intense. im sure that in a month or two we will all disperse and go our own way for the next 2 and a half to 3 years. then we'll be back at it again.

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thoughtful:

I suggested on the other strand that maybe Pollster would like to publish each of the actual States turnouts and exit polls for comment. Could do one a day for 51 days!

I am still not convinced about the count in Georgia.

And as we are all know Alaska is very very wierd. A favorite daughter and a convicted crook running and - lower turnout. Sorry can't buy it.

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Jacob S:

That's it! I am going to remove all of my polling sites from my favorites. I am going cold turkey.

____________________

ricbrig:

ahahahh
another addicted to this site!!

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NW Patrick:

I just read Obama won 1 vote in NE. Is this already included in the 364?

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Basil:

Hanging on by a thread. I like it here.

Go Al Franken!

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Publius:

If Palin is the R nominee in 2012, then the party has truly lost its mind. She would be the right wing Mondale.

I think that Obama should keep Biden and let the other D hopefuls earn the nomination on their own. If he picks someone else in 2012, that person would have too many expectations and would be seen as an heir apparent. I think that would be a negative.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Basil, NW Patrick, kerrch, political_junki and all of you who are still here :),

- Franken is now within 336 votes BEFORE the recount starts. That number keeps going down as the counties and precincts recount and recheck their numbers after the initial "data dumps" acc. to Mark Richie, MN Sec. of State. MPR just ran a great story on the process, Richie to take an hour of phone calls on [N/M]PR manana at noon. Apparently one precinct ran the absentee ballots twice in the initial count, resulting in a 100 vote wider margin.

- I too am very suspicious about GA. CNN handing GA to McCain early on in the evening DESPITE the 61% early vote that featured >56% women and 35%AA makes me wonder just where they found those McCain-lovin'/Palin adorin' sistahs. It just doesn't wash. No way it could've been called and early at that. I smell a rotten peach. Something is rotten in the state of Georgia. Either they recount or we kick them out of NATO! *g*.
- And speaking of grins, watching Hardball, Chris reporting that Palin didn't know that Africa is a continent, what countries are party to NAFTA, or that South Africa is a country. HOLY BLANKING BLANK! I apologize for my inappropriate language, but no euphemism will suffice here! Holy blanking blank, I say again. I am so glad this wounded barracuda is swimming back upstream to Alaska.

There was more I wanted to vent, but I forget :)

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Bigmike:

It makes sense for us cons to bite on this one. We are already plotting our evil revenge. But libs, you guys should still be hung over or singing kumbaya around a campfire, or whatever it is you guys do. Celebratory Latte, perhaps?

Or maybe I am just in denial on my own addiction.

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TomT:

I fell for this TWO TIMES in ONE day! That's when you know you're addicted!

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JedRothwell:

Re: "PLEDGE OF UNITY"

I love it! Hysterical. Fuuneee. F.D.O. (For Democrats Only)

I gotta nitpick this though. The meter would work better as follows:

"The results are now known."

____________________

Basil:

MN

We're all Georgians. Heh, heh.

Keep the threads coming.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Sure, Bigmike, I'll celebrate with you. The rest of the Dems are busy at work starting to fix the 8 years of dubya ****ing up the country. So I've been appointed as the gentler, kinder and pinker liberal outreacher to the Republican community.

I've had a tough time finding the New Freshly Purged Republicans, though, because all the faux Republican wannabe posers. To make sure I am taking to a real Republican please take the following 3 question test:

1 Sarah Palin
a) great VP candidate or
b) greatest VP candidate EVER?

2 George W Bush
a) great President or
b) greatest President EVER?

3 Fill in the blank: Ira_
a) q
b) n
c) l qaida
d) they're all the same so nuke 'em all as preventive maintenance.


BTW, kids, Franken now within 236!!!!
Gotta love that math!

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Dave:

http://xkcd.com/500/

this is us :-/

its okay... there's news galore... Franken creeping up in MN.... 327 votes behind and Coleman (R)'s lead is shrinking.....

____________________

Mike Farrace:

HA! That was good. I was getting ready to trash all those guys headed for Iowa in a couple of weeks. I like JedRothwell's line. Actually, it would be very interesting if they polled Republicans now about 2012.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

:) @ Basil.

@ Cousydee, what district are you in?
I have all those "TO HELL WITH BACHMANN" (tm) bumper stickers I made a couple of years back that will have to be re-ordered. I am going to pitch them to the Northern Sun when I get a chance. Might as well profit from the Wacko. (I gave away almost a thousand pro bono in this election cycle.)

____________________

political_junki:

Bigmike:
I think having two strong political thoughts, like libs and cons is the best thing for the country. But to be honest I think right now the Conservative side has been hijacked by social-conservatives with the most backwards interpretation of religion.
I liked Obama and his liberal view on social issues that is why I voted for him. That was before McCain picked Palin.
With that ignorant witch hunting jesus freak Baboon on the ticket, it really didnt matter who was running against McCain anymore, I would have voted for Donald Duck to avoid having that moron be the United states second person.


So BigMike! You guys have to have a purge among yourselves first if you really want to have a revenge against the libs. You owe your defeat as much to your selves as to us.
David Forum is bush's speech writer and a staunch conservative, he agrees:

-----------------------------------------------
David Frum: Republicans face fraught choice between two roads to revival
Posted: November 05, 2008, 7:45 AM by Kelly McParland
David Frum, Full Comment, U.S. Politics
In the wake of yesterday’s bruising result, the Republican party faces an excruciating and divisive choice between two very different futures.

The first choice is the choice on display at the excited rallies that cheered Sarah Palin all through the fall. This is a choice to fall back on the core base of the Republican party. The base is almost entirely white, almost entirely resident in the middle of the country, moderately affluent, middle-aged and older, more male than female, with some college education but not a college degree. Think of Joe the Plumber and you see the core of the Republican party.

Republicans have won a string of elections thanks to Joe.

Joe came through in 1994, delivering both houses of Congress to the Republicans. Joe was not enough to elect Bob Dole president, but thanks to him the Republicans kept a dwindling hold on Congress in 1996, 1998, and 2000.

Joe rallied to President Bush after 9/11. Republicans owed their gains in 2002 to Joe. And without Joe, George W. Bush would not have won in 2004.

Joe has not changed much over the past two decades or so. But the country has. The Hispanic population of the United States has almost doubled since 1990. The proportion of white Americans with a college degree has jumped from 22% in 1990 to almost 28 ½% .

In order to keep competitive, the GOP has had to win more and more of the Joe vote. Ruy Texeira, perhaps America’s leading expert on the voting behavior of the white working class, observes that George W. Bush won in 2004 by only 3 points – but won the white working class by 23 points.

This year, an economically squeezed Joe did not come through for the GOP. But once the dust settles, many Republican leaders will urge the party to return to the tried and true. They’ll say: 2008 was an unusual year! Iraq, Bush, Katrina, the financial meltdown, and a too-moderate candidate at the head of the ticket: No wonder we lost! But the messages that won for Reagan in 1980 and Newt Gingrich in 1994 and George Bush in 2002 will win for us again. Taxes – guns – right to
life – patriotism – the formula is all there. Stick to it.

If 60% of the Joe vote is no longer enough, nominate Palin – and win 65%. Or 70%. Whatever it takes.

As I said: that’s one path.

There’s another. It’s the path that begins by facing up to the arithmetic that says – Joe is no longer enough. God bless him, he’s
the GOP base, and no Republican wants to lose him. But he needs reinforcements.

George W. Bush tried to reinforce Joe by appealing to Hispanic voters. But that approach failed, and for predictable reasons: American Hispanics are poor – and they vote majority Democrat for the same reasons that poor people of all races vote Democratic. Bush hoped that he could win Hispanics by (1) granting amnesty to illegal immigrants, (2) expanding federal programs like Medicare and federal education aid, and (3) pressuring banks to relax lending standards to help lower-
income workers to buy homes.

But Bush could not get (1) through Congress – and anyway it alienated Joe, whom Republicans still needed. He did (2), but Democrats outbid him, as they always will. And (3) … well we all know how that ended. If Hispanics benefited disproportionately from the U.S. housing boom (as the early data suggest they did), they are suffering disproportionately from the U.S. housing bust.

There will not be an Hispanic future for the GOP for years and years.

But there is another way to reinforce Joe – and that’s the way so old and dusty as almost to feel new and unexplored.

A generation ago, Republicans dominated among college graduates. In 1984 and 1988, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won states like California, Pennsylvania and Connecticut – states that have been “blue” for a generation. (America’s least educated state, West Virginia, went for Michael Dukakis in 1988.)

Those days are long gone. Since 1988, Democrats have become more conservative on economics – and Republicans have become more conservative on social issues.

College-educated Americans have come to believe that their money is safe with Democrats – but that their values are under threat from Republicans. And there are more and more of these college-educated Americans all the time.

So the question for the GOP is: Will it pursue them? To do so will involve painful change, on issues ranging from the environment to abortion. And it will involve potentially even more painful changes of style and tone: toward a future that is less overtly religious, less negligent with policy, and less polarizing on social issues. That’s a future that leaves little room for Sarah Palin – but the only hope for a Republican recovery.

National Post

____________________

boomshack:

@NW Patrick:
"BOOMSHACK's STATE GOES BLUE! HAHAHAHAHAA!"

fwiw,
boomshack's state HAS ALWAYS BEEN BLUE!

I too miss the banned political prodigy that was boomshak. Who is hugging him now, in his time of need?

____________________

Lechuguilla:

Keep us up to date on the Franken count. Looks more encouraging. :)

I've been looking at Limbaugh's website about his reaction to Obama win. But, as usual, his comments are just incoherent jibberish.


Our household does not subscribe to cable, by choice. Would be curious to know what Hannity, Oriely and other conservative pundits have been saying about Obama's big win. Are they angry? Are they conciliatory? Are they in denial?

Would greatly appreciate any responses. Thanks,

Lech

____________________

merveilleux:

@Lechu

Hannity, for his part, is calling for impeachment.

On the gay issue, it amazes me that minorities could feel contempt for each other. I realize it happens, since there are Jews who hate Blacks and vice versa, but Rosa Parks said that MLK's speech extended to sexual orientation and that he would fight for gay rights too if he were alive.

And as far as "feminine" gays and transsexuals who want to be the center of attention? Um, by that logic, shouldn't Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohan be banned from marrying? They get drunk and flash people without panties. What about Paris Hilton and her sex tape? Sorry, but if it was about making a spectacle, celebrity marriages would be illegal, because they don't even wait for pride parades.

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

Well, you can bet on the 2012 presidency. I know I saw it at Ladbrokes and at least one other site. Last I checked, Obama was odds-on favorite and no one else was below 15/1.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Hi guys,

What a few days! What a change for this country. What a landslide....

It's going to a be an unqiue few years ahead. They are going to be tough, but I am confident we have the right person, putting together the right time. America has got to do some soul searching and get back on track, and this is the most important step you can ask for.

Keep the peace.

____________________

thoughtful:

good morning Mystic

I agree we have the best guy.

Huge challenges for the US at home and in concert with the rest of the planet.

____________________

Batony:

Interesting info about turnout. I knew a lot of Reps stayed home:

"WASHINGTON (CNN) – A new report from American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate concludes that voter turnout in Tuesday’s election was the same in percentage terms as it was four years ago — or at most has risen by less than 1 percent...........................Click here to read the entire report.

The report released Thursday estimates that between 126.5 and 128.5 million Americans cast ballots in the presidential election earlier this week. Those figures represent 60.7 percent or, at most, 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote in the country.

“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.

“Many people were fooled (including this student of politics although less so than many others) by this year’s increase in registration (more than 10 million added to the rolls), citizens’ willingness to stand for hours even in inclement weather to vote early, the likely rise in youth and African American voting, and the extensive grassroots organizing network of the Obama campaign into believing that turnout would be substantially higher than in 2004,” Curtis Gans, the center’s director, said in the report. “But we failed to realize that the registration increase was driven by Democratic and independent registration and that the long lines at the polls were mostly populated by Democrats.”


Some experts also note that national turnout trends may mask higher turnout in swing states with more intensive attempts by both campaigns to get their supporters to the polls. Several large states, including California and New York, had no statewide races and virtually no advertising or get-out-the-vote efforts by either presidential campaign.

According to the report, several Southern states — North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Virginia, and Mississippi — and the District of Columbia saw the greatest increases in voter turnout.

Overall turnout was highest in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, South Dakota and North Carolina, according to the report.....................In 2004, 122 million Americans voted in the general election.(cnn.com)

____________________

Trosen:

If you haven't already.. I highly recommend reading this. Fascinating stuff.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167581

____________________



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